A postcard from the day of an election

Capturing a political-constitutional moment

Today is the day of the American presidential election.

Sooner or later there should be a result - even if, like four years ago, there is drama (or worse) all the way into the new year. And when there is some sort of result then there will be those who will explain why that was always the most likely result. Such is the nature of punditry.

But today, all is uncertain.

On the face of it, it would seem that Harris should win. Trump does not seem stronger than he did four years ago - or two years ago when his endorsed candidates did badly. He is also a more divisive figure than he was when he won eight years ago, and he is against a less divisive candidate.

But, we are not in times where such a rational view has much purchase. We are in a period of populism and hyper-partisanship and disinformation, of joyful cruelty and illiberal frenzy. One can too easily imagine Trump winning. Less likely things have happened in the United States and around the world in recent years.

And if so, we will have an extraordinary situation of a president with criminal sanctions and facing criminal trials using the might of his office to reduce his exposure to any proceedings.

And we will have a president who boasts of wanting to also use the might of his office against political enemies, both personal and general.

The only liberal hope would be that, again, he is too lazy to follow-through on his threats, and that the swings he takes will be on the golf course, and not from the Oval Office.

In the days, weeks and months to come, things may be clearer - though even that cannot be said with absolute certainty - but as of today, things are unclear and they are worrying.

So it seemed to be a moment worth recording, using this blogpost as a postcard.

And to adapt the wording of a postcard: I wish we weren’t here.